My first reaction to that story in which Bill Gates said iPods can't last in the long run because everyone will be downloading music to their cell phones was to think, well, yeah, convergence is coming and all that, music and TV and radio and phones and Net, all in one device. And there WILL be convergence. I already carry a phone that does e-mail and web and can play MP3s.
But then I thought about that last part some more, and, suddenly, Gates' prediction seemed to be less solid. Here's why, in a word:
Usability.
The phone I have is about as small as you can make a device with a readable screen, and it's still bulky. I love it, but sometimes I long for a tiny, easy-to-pocket phone that doesn't make me look like I'm carrying the Encyclopaedia Britannica on my hip. And, sure, these devices WILL get smaller, but how much smaller can you make those screens if you're going to show video on them, or display full web pages, or have menus with text large enough for the average person to read? I have no doubt they CAN merge MP3 players with cell phones and computers and TVs, but just on an ergonomic level, they can't really make one device that does everything with the right form factor.
That is to say, iPods and iPod Minis are pretty much perfect form-factor music players. But they'd make lousy phones. The Treo's great for e-mail and Palm Pilot uses, a little awkward as a phone, and pretty lousy as a music player- the software, Pocket Tunes or RealPlayer, just isn't as elegant or easy as iPod's, you have to manually upload songs (onto a Secure Digital card), you need an adapter for the headphone jack to hear it in stereo, and a phone call will interrupt the music. Do we really WANT phone calls on the same device as our music? Put it this way- you can use your TV to surf the web, but nobody does. You can watch TV on your PC, but few do. (I do, but it's not something most people do) You can get e-mail on your cell phone, even a regular cell phone, but few people actually USE that function- if you're serious about mobile e-mail, you use a Treo or BlackBerry.
Look at music players in general: there are players that are cheaper and hold more than an iPod. They come in pretty colors, are made by reputable companies, and do what the iPod does, play music. But iPods sell lots more, even at much higher prices. And iPod Minis, which give you much less bang for your buck than the regular full-sized iPod or, especially, the iPod Photo, are hugely popular. This flies in the face of the thinking that people want more and more in their portable devices for less and less money. No, they want usability and they want cool. There is no more usable portable music player than the iPod- easy to navigate, well thought out, syncs in a flash, iTunes software is easy and self-explanatory. You don't really have to read the manual. Charge it up, plug it into the USB or FireWire port, fire up iTunes, set up playlists, sync, go. Readable screen, stylish appearance, reasonable size. (Oh, and they tend to work without a problem- when was the last time you could say that about anything running Windows?)
But then, they say, you can add a phone to that. And video, and Net. But you need a bigger screen for those, and a keyboard of some sort- does anyone use Graffiti anymore?- and soon, you get objects the size of Montana, or at least like those Portable Video Player deals nobody's buying. They don't comfortably fit in your pocket, but they can do everything.
"Can" does not equal "should."
So I expect the Swiss Army Phones to show up sporting Bill Gates' new portable Windows mutation, and I expect they'll be kinda cool. I might even get one. But I don't really want my music on my phone. I don't want phone calls interrupting the tunes, I don't want a music player that's too big and thick because it has to have a Net-worthy screen and a slide-out keyboard. I want a phone that works, with e-mail and Net access. I already have that. I'd rather have my music and video on separate gadgets. Convergence can wait. I don't have the pocket space for it.
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