So there's a guy and he's strapped to the railroad tracks, and there's a light getting closer and chugging noises getting louder and smoke gettigng stronger, and he looks up and says "yeah, I know it's a train heading for me, but I think that I'll be OK because I'm really good."
Meet terrestrial broadcast radio, circa 2006.
All right, that's an overstatement, but there's a weird limited-awareness thing going on here. The assembled multitudes at the NAB convention seem to be more aware than ever that technology is causing them problems. There are seminars on telecom entrance into the cable TV competition, on cell phone entertainment, on the integration of broadcast media into mobile devices. But I was sitting through one such forum (the unfortunately-titled "How 2 B COOL In The N3W T3CH Age"- someone at the NAB thought that was COOL), and the guy from Clear Channel was talking about how radio needs to integrate with the new tech devices, how streaming is critical and how you can stream to cell phones, and they were talking about creating radio's own MySpace-equivalents and they went on about using texting to sell ads and blah blah blah and so forth and the audience was nodding and eating it up and there was one question I tried to ask but time ran out:
Who needs YOU to provide the content?
The problem radio is going to encounter is this: they think their version of a music service is what people want, but someone who's in that 12-17 demographic thinks they suck. And older people are getting there, too. Who are you going to look to for your music choices, Clear Channel or someone you trust on the Net? Are you going to wait for Kiss-FM, or Kiss-HD, or Kiss-HD-2 to play new music or are you going to check out samples on iTunes or see what's hot at Pitchfork Media? Why would you trust terrestrial radio people to give them what they want?
You wouldn't, not when there are easily available alternatives. And that's why radio has some long-term trouble in store. There's an arrogance in radio programming- and I was a major market PD, so I get to say this- that assumes that people will want what we give them, because we've done the research and we know what they want. But now there are other ways to get that content, and individuals can get what they want without the middleman, or at least from a different middleman. And as that gets easier for people to do, there's every reason to believe they will.
The new NAB head, David Rehr, told the opening session that the problem isn't that radio's facing an uncertain future- no, the problem is a PR difficulty, that it's just a matter of confidence, of being on the offensive rather than the defensive. All they need to do is aggressively tell everyone that satellite radio is losing money and has dirty, feelthy content and everything'll be OK. He also said that "broadcast signals must be everywhere in the culture. Our signals must go everywhere, to everyone, through every device." And there it is again, the trigger for that question:
Who needs YOU to provide the content?
Might there be a reason kids aren't listening to the radio that goes beyond a PR problem?
Meanwhile, the HD Radio session had me cringing as the industry's "new, exciting programming" for those HD subchannels got trotted out as revolutionary, fun, different. What are the bright ideas? Dance music, which has been around (and mostly failed) as a format in several markets. Active rock, which is hardly new. Chill, which Sirius has been programming for a few years. Gospel, which is new if this is 1949. Hip-hop oldies, which flopped in L.A. on a regular station and which is available on satellite. In other words, there's absolutely nothing new on these channels.
This morning, a press release hit All Access' Net news about Clear Channel's unveiling of several of these "new" formats for HD subchannels:
CLEAR CHANNEL RADIO CEO JOHN HOGAN said, "We have become agnostic about delivery and are completely passionate about content. And we’ll continue to lead the radio industry on to new platforms. Radio programming is the most engaging and compelling media today. Our power to connect with, and hold, consumers will continue to reveal itself as we supplement our outstanding AM/FM properties with programming for new devices."
But the content is not exclusive. With the Net, ANYONE CAN PROGRAM ANYTHING, and with an iPod, you can do it yourself. In fact, there is one type of programming you CAN'T easily duplicate, that you CAN'T do better than the big radio companies, that SHOULD be all over these new channels and should be the content they put on cell phones and streams and podcasts.
It's called talk radio.
Among 75 new formats developed by Clear Channel's "format lab," exactly one is spoken word, a comedy channel identical to those already available on Sirius and XM and consisting of recorded comedy bits available elsewhere. Every single format of the 75 is available elsewhere. Why they think people will want them from Clear Channel (or CBs, or Citadel, or Cumulus) is never enunciated, because they have no answer. On the other hand, Clear Channel owns talk with powerful brands like Rush and Noory and Hendrie and WLW and KFI. They have personality morning shows all over the country. They have a huge amount of talk content and the unique ability to develop more. And you can't just upload your own home-grown Rush Limbaugh- there's exactly one. There's one Sean Hannity. There's one Stephanie Miller, one Bill Handel, one John and Ken Show, one Michael Smerconish and one Regular Guys and one Lex and Terry and one Michael Savage and one Roe Conn. Get the idea? It's the one thing radio has that can't be duplicated by anyone else, and instead you get this Clear Channel "Format Lab" format description:
Urban - The Suite (CH 904)
Keeping it's finger on the beat of Urban mid-tempo to slow jam songs. In the back of the club with Alicia Keys, Poppin bottles of Cris with Gorillaz, Put the bar on the tab for R. Kelly, Throwin hundreds up for grabs for Black Eyed Peas - yeah, all right here on the Suite, where we know how throw a Fiesta, Fiesta. Alicia Keys, Heather Headley, Kem, Maxwell Ascension, Charlie Wilson, Ne-Yo, Patti LaBelle, Shai, Michael Jackson.
Oh, yeah. That'll stop the bleeding.
Of course, radio isn't dead. And listening among older audiences isn't yet a problem. There's still that massive established base of equipment in every single car, in every home, all over the place. But if there isn't dissatisfaction with the product, why is the industry racing to provide its own alternatives to itself? And why would they think that music is the way to go when it's the thing they provide that anyone else can provide?
I'm not going to get the answers here.
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