Here's this week's All Access newsletter. Self-explanatory:
So, what's next?
Nobody knows where the media go from here, but everyone seems to be an expert. And I've been reading a lot from those experts lately. Let me see if I can react to some of the assertions that are floating around out there:
1. The future is podcasting.
Maybe that should be "A future is podcasting." Or "Podcasting is PART of the future." The technology's already here, there's a critical mass of players and easy access to content, and yet, with the exception of some narrowly-targeted examples (mostly in the tech field), none are really all that huge and few are actually generating a lot of income. It would stand to reason that easily obtained on-demand programming is a no-brainer, and it isn't so much a replacement for radio as it is an extension of radio and a way to make a (non-live) show available to more people, but even though subscribing is fairly easy, it's still not a mass-market thing, and may never be. And I think that's because it still requires more planning and thought than most people want to put into audio entertainment. You can just hop into the car and hit a button and hear whatever happens to be on, or you can hit a button and hear your iPod tunes on shuffle, or you can go through the motions of subscribing and then moving through the menus to find and play a specific podcast. There will be people -- I include myself in this group -- who will be voracious users of podcasts, and there'll eventually be a bigger business in that, to reach specific, motivated consumers. But I'm not expecting that it'll kill off live radio all that quickly. It's meeting the need of people to be able to generate and send out content, but most people's content consumption needs are already met by other means, like flipping on the car radio.
2. The future is streaming.
Sort of. You can assume that customizable music stuff like Pandora and Last.fm will be part of the mix, and hybrids like Spotify, too. It'll also help if someone figures out how to filter the countless available streams into an easily navigable guide that you can operate while maintaining control of your car. Ubiquitous wireless broadband is a given, but it'll have to be cheap or free to really take hold if the economy remains difficult for more than a few years. And streaming is just a delivery mechanism. The main effect it has is to remove scarcity from the equation. And if streaming DOES replace the old radio broadcast model, it'll both present problems (unlimited competition battling for revenues) and opportunities (you can do unlimited streams, and anyone can start their own for minimal cost). But making money with it will take some more time.
3. The future is text messaging.
I saw this one pitched as radio's future primary competitor. I guess it's the same thing as how the telephone killed off radio in the 1930's, and the cell phone destroyed broadcasting in the 90's. Anyone who observes kids who text -- anyone who texts himself or herself -- knows that you do it while doing other stuff. Texting doesn't replace listening to radio, or watching video. It doesn't take away time spent with other media. You do it at the movies, at dinner, while watching TV. Look at the news: Texting hasn't even replaced driving, although it HAS replaced paying close attention to the road in front of you. It's a different medium, and it has revenue opportunities of its own, but it's more complimentary than competitive.
4. The future is HD Radio.
Oh, come on, now.
5. The future is the cell phone.
See streaming. It may very well be the primary device people use for consuming all media. You can already get access to it, and you should (you got an iPhone app? BlackBerry? WinMo, WebOS, Android? Get cracking on that). But what nobody seems to address when talking about the smartphone is that there's a long, long way to go to make even the iPhone the be-all, end-all device, because there's one element that's not been perfected: battery life. Go ahead, use the iPhone for streaming and see how much juice you have at the end of the work day to make a phone call.
6. The future is free.
Yeah, this is a problem, but it's a problem for all media, old and new. It's very, very hard to charge for any content other than something very special that you can get your employer to pay for (the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times... er, yeah, that's about it). The problem for everything is that many of the largest traditional advertisers have slashed budgets and some are never coming back. And the ones that remain are looking for bargains, and they're intrigued by the idea of paying not for CPMs but for actual sales trackable to specific advertising, which saves them money. The big chore for radio is to either show that advertising to wider segments of the public is worth the cost (and isn't riddled with wasted circulation), or to come up with ways to sell those narrow slivers and produce trackable results. Tough job either way.
7. The future is anything but radio.
I can't declare radio dead yet. It's not going to be the same as before; there's way too much competition for attention. But it's not like radio is "laughably obsolete," as one pundit claimed. It's ubiquitous, it's practically free, it's easy to use (and everyone knows how), it's live, and it's less prone to dropouts and dead spots than 3G. It just works, as a certain company likes you to say about their higher-tech offerings. And audience levels remain quite large. Sure, young people say they don't listen to radio, but the dirty secret is that they ALWAYS said that. When I was in high school and college many years ago, only radio geeks like me would ever admit to listening to radio. Everyone else stuck to their cassettes and LPs, the way today's kids have iPods. And they would say "I never listen to corporate radio," but they seemed to know exactly where WMMR or WNEW were on the dial. Somehow, I think radio will be around, despite the competition, despite the (mis)management, despite the crushing debt and likely bankruptcies to come. There's still life in this industry. And it could be worse; you could be working in the magazine industry. Or newspapers. Or television. Or car manufacturing.
All right, then, what IS the future going to be like? Simple: I dunno. But at least I admit it. The people who make a living telling you what the future of the media will be like don't know, either, but they'll be happy to take a paycheck to tell you that they know. Actually, that sounds like a better plan than mine. If you're willing to pay me, I'll be happy to act like I know something. Cash preferred.
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Oh, yeah, here's a reminder: I will be moderating the syndication panel at the Talk Radio Boot Camp in Atlanta on November 14th, with top agents Eric Weiss and Lisa Miller, syndicated host Doug Stephan, Envision Radio Networks' Danno Wolkoff, Dial Global's Jessica Sherman, and Radio Affiliate Services & Syndication's Scott Gilreath on the panel. We'll be talking about the pros and cons of syndication, who gets there, how they do it, and what works (and doesn't). Face it, if you're a good local host, you're wondering what it takes to get to the regional or national level. We'll try to answer that. Go to talkshowbootcamp.com for more about that.
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It's been a busy couple of weeks at All Access, what with the New! Improved! Version 3.0 having been launched, and, yes, I've heard your praise and your questions and I'm glad that folks seem to like the new format. All the praise should go to All Access' own technical experts who spent an enormous amount of time making this thing work. And there's more to come. In the meantime, Talk Topics is plugging away with material for your show prep needs, this week including an interesting reaction to undersized fries, a dead deer in a clown suit, a flaming pumpkin, why iPods and marathons don't mix, the debut of the UFL (what?), why not to wear red shoes on a San Francisco bus, Matt Holliday's traumatic ninth inning, the "scaled-back" Neiman Marcus Christmas catalog, a TV star's unfortunate mid-air groin injury, how weight has become a campaign issue in New Jersey's gubernatorial race, the latest in the saga of the Obama ChiaPet, how an 81 year old won his division at the Twin Cities Marathon with the help of a borrowed catheter, the Most Annoying Fans in Sports (we Eagles fans are number 4 -- next time, to the top!), and a lot of stories about the terrible economy, as you might expect. Also, enjoy "10 Questions With..." KMLB/Monroe, LA PD and "Redding News Review" syndicated host Rob Redding and the rest of All Access, where the usual resources and news and columns are better than ever and still totally free.
Oh, yeah, I just thought of another reason radio can't go away. During the playoffs, if you don't listen to the radio, you can't hear Vin Scully call the Dodger games. Try finding THAT in a text message.
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